FAS / FAZ / Daily Discussions / Archives / 11-04-2011 / Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Topie: Wednesday, April 27, 2011
April 27th, 2011 07:20 AM
membar I'm slowly coming to the conclusion that the opportunity cost of doing this stuff vs. doing something different, like sinking this time into a business idea, is not worth it. I've learned a ton and I've stopped doing dumb things and I feel like I'm doing everything right this year, but the fact is that I'm not making any money. Or else I make it, then lose it all back again.

Congratulations to those who are actually able to make this work.

Today is a classic example of a day that's a guaranteed stopout, yet I still have to play.

I'm half-tempted to start a countercurrent on this forum if anyone else bites: does anyone have a good, simple software idea? Like something for the App Store? I'm tempted to do an experiment on this board to see if sinking the equivalent amount of time into an endeavor like that would make more money than what I'm doing now. We would track its progress, etc.
April 27th, 2011 08:08 AM
nocash Very funny I feel exactly the same way,and I believe this is almost an addiction.I'm capable of doing allot of useful things and have not lately do to this.I have learned allot,but wish I had spent this amount of time learning to play the guitar or piano or almost anything else.the problem is when I'm on a winning streak I kid myself into thinking I have figured it out.
Let me ask if you quit and decided to join the rest of the world and invest the old fashion way what would you buy or short long term and why.
April 27th, 2011 09:32 AM
Black Swan :-) Today will be different. Keep marching boys. We will never quit. One day we will figure it all. Finally in cash after holding for a long ride. Feels good to be back.
April 27th, 2011 10:12 AM
ISA_Coder i'm sorry to hear you feel that way membar, but it's understandable.

I think you have to ask yourself why you got into trading in the first place and determine if those initial starting reasons still hold.
Was it purely just to make money? Was it more because you thought that this would be an easy way to make a lot of money and fast?

I've heard stories of successful traders who say they didn't have a profitable year until their 3rd, 4th, 5th year but you never hear about the non-successful traders who traded for 10 years and lost every single year, most people give up before they get to that point when they decide trading is not for them.

I guess there will come a time for everyone, if they are not winning at this game, to start thinking about quitting it.

Me personally, I think I'll be trading till I die but I may not always trade ETF's, I'm young and I don't mind being risky right now, I'm single with no kids but if that ever changes, I'm may want to play it safe, who knows, only time will tell.
April 27th, 2011 01:23 PM
ISA_Coder grr....i'm mad, I had a stop on TNA at 89.98 and the low says 89.99 so technically my stop should not have hit. I'm sure i will not get any reconciliation for this but I contacted scottrade about it, just a bummer
April 27th, 2011 01:27 PM
BullDog My suggestions is to add and play with some stable things as consumer staples and consumer discretionary. I was always working with wild boys like FAS and JPM. But recently boring things like MO and ATT, KO, PG, MCD have been a Savior.
April 27th, 2011 01:38 PM
membar
Quote:
ISA_Coder wrote:
I think you have to ask yourself why you got into trading in the first place and determine if those initial starting reasons still hold.
Was it purely just to make money? Was it more because you thought that this would be an easy way to make a lot of money and fast?

I've heard stories of successful traders who say they didn't have a profitable year until their 3rd, 4th, 5th year but you never hear about the non-successful traders who traded for 10 years and lost every single year, most people give up before they get to that point when they decide trading is not for them.

Wow. Those were good posts. I hadn't realized that some successful traders aren't successful 'til several years down the road. I assumed that they were successful way sooner than I was.

When I first started trading, I had just read Peter Schiff's book (I forget what it's called) and figured that since the world was going to end, I might as well pile into DXD. I did that in October '08 when there was a 700 point crash and made a boatload of money and thought I was a genius. I proceeded to make more boatloads only to get shredded later on.

In May '09, I discovered Slim's Google FTG thread. I made good money, then lost it when FTG started going sour. I then became a student of Allen and Jimmy Smith...

(Need to stop posting now. Will continue this evening.)
April 27th, 2011 01:42 PM
allen314159
Quote:
membar wrote:
I then became a student of Allen and Jimmy Smith...


membar, I'm still a student and probably will be one for life. So I dunno if you should be a student of a student!
April 27th, 2011 01:47 PM
membar ...I'll continue now.

I then became a student of Allen & Jimmy Smith but continued to do sporadic dumb things in '09. Finally, I took a break around the end of '09 and just started papertrading things. When I found a successful strategy, I started real-trading with small amounts in 2/10 and scaling in. This was successful until the strategy suddenly stopped working. I did a couple of dumb things in '10, but not as many, I finished the year flat.

This year, I developed another strategy and started trading it along with FKOS and later, TKOS. (I had a stint with Emma, but I gave her up about a month ago.) I haven't made any real blunders this year and am proud of myself. The strategy itself is flat, though, and it's also frustrating that I was up 30% in FKOS before losing it all.

For me, trading is a means to financial independence and earning money on my own terms, not a fun thing. I can safely say haven't been addicted since '09 (unless you can call strategy development and backtesting an addiction, but I've largely given up on that too).

I guess what I'm wondering at the moment is whether this is really viable or not and if so, what the opportunity cost is of learning to be good at this vs. applying the same time and energy towards something else.
April 27th, 2011 01:48 PM
membar
Quote:
allen314159 wrote:
membar, I'm still a student and probably will be one for life. So I dunno if you should be a student of a student!

You're a very good teacher.
April 27th, 2011 02:41 PM
allen314159
Quote:
membar wrote:

You're a very good teacher.


I've learned as well. I wouldn't be doing automated trading if it weren't for you. :)
April 27th, 2011 03:17 PM
BullDog Just enjoyed Bernanke's press conference.
No surprises.
April 27th, 2011 07:32 PM
membar Did anyone see what happened to AGQ this afternoon?