FAS / FAZ / Daily Discussions / Archives / 11-04-2011 / Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Topie: Wednesday, April 20, 2011
April 20th, 2011 07:16 AM
membar For anyone that heard my shouting and screaming after hours yesterday, I guess Mr. Market is giving me a consolation prize this morning to keep me coming back to the casino.

Allen I started to work on the mx + b thing but got confused about b. In what units is b? Cents? Percentage of opening price? I know I could look at the Matlab code for the answer, but I'm feeling both rushed and lazy this morning.
April 20th, 2011 09:02 AM
idej Hey membar remember, "Nothing risked, nothing gained". Hang in there and keep in mind, FKOS really works great once a trend is in place. It's been back and forth lately which is when you get kicked out too much.

Of course I'm still holding like an idiot thinking it wouldn't go down quite this far (but confident that it will go up like rocket soon).

Good luck
April 20th, 2011 09:32 AM
ISA_Coder nice gap up for TNA, good job membar on that one!
April 20th, 2011 01:15 PM
membar
Quote:
ISA_Coder wrote:
nice gap up for TNA, good job membar on that one!

I was playing TKOS, so I had no choice :)

The problem with waiting for the trend to happen is that you can get stopped out a ton and lose a lot before the trend takes hold. I guess that's where position sizing comes in. (I'm not doing that with the IRA accounts I'm playing FKOS with. I'm all in.)

I wonder if it's possible to create a system which capitalizes on mini-trends. You jump on then off before the trend falls apart. No idea how to do this. Look at AGQ - it's like a freight train. It would have been cool to have KOSed that sucker. Maybe it's still not too late.

If everyone is saying that gold is going to hit $2500, then why don't we all buy and wait? Or is it because they said the same things about oil going to $140 in the summer of '08. It kind of all makes your head spin.
April 20th, 2011 01:45 PM
allen314159
Quote:
idej wrote:
Hey membar remember, "Nothing risked, nothing gained". Hang in there and keep in mind, FKOS really works great once a trend is in place. It's been back and forth lately which is when you get kicked out too much.


idej, good point.

So I think why FKOS has tanked lately is that the market is going up, while financials are lagging against the market (and effectively going sideways). If either the market goes down while financials are going down, or the market goes up and financials go up, then FKOS does well.

However if the market goes up, and FAS lags, or market goes down, and FAS leads, then FKOS doesn't do as well.

So it's really FAS's beta that matters. Not sure how to fix this. Buy and hold AGQ?
April 20th, 2011 01:55 PM
allen314159
Quote:
membar wrote:
For anyone that heard my shouting and screaming after hours yesterday, I guess Mr. Market is giving me a consolation prize this morning to keep me coming back to the casino.

Allen I started to work on the mx + b thing but got confused about b. In what units is b? Cents? Percentage of opening price? I know I could look at the Matlab code for the answer, but I'm feeling both rushed and lazy this morning.


the formula for your stop will be:

Open - (m x ATR5 + b) x Prev. Close

so b is in percent/fraction (i.e., unitless)
April 20th, 2011 01:59 PM
membar
Quote:
allen314159 wrote:
the formula for your stop will be:

Open - (m x ATR5 + b) x Prev. Close

so b is in percent/fraction (i.e., unitless)

Thanks. I'll try to work on this again tonight.

I reran the same test that gave me 0.23 ATR and I'm getting 0.29 (?!)
April 20th, 2011 02:32 PM
allen314159
Quote:
membar wrote:

Thanks. I'll try to work on this again tonight.

I reran the same test that gave me 0.23 ATR and I'm getting 0.29 (?!)


I can post FKOS 2.0 if you want, or you can do it and post it.
April 20th, 2011 03:18 PM
BullDog anking stocks have also had a hard time today. As such, the KBW Bank Index is down 0.8%. Its move lower comes in the wake of a disappointing report from Wells Fargo.
How to factor that into whatever KOS :D
April 20th, 2011 03:49 PM
BullDog S&P so high 1331
VIX so low 15
Oil 111 barrel

BUT FREAKING FINANCIALS IN THE DUMP .. . Feel like yelling EEEEEEEEEEIIIIKKK
April 20th, 2011 05:55 PM
membar Welcome back, Bulldog!