FAS / FAZ / Daily Discussions / Archives / 11-04-2011 / Thursday, March 31 2011

Topie: Thursday, March 31 2011
March 31st, 2011 10:19 AM
ISA_Coder Big question on my mind today is whether or not TNA will break its 52 week high.

In TNA at 87.12, OCO sell order with stop at 86.22 and limit at 87.98

My stop/limit prices were previously 86.20 and 88.00 but i just changed them to be non-rounded numbers as per yesterday's discussion.

Anyone else trading TNA today?
March 31st, 2011 10:20 AM
Black Swan I am in TNA. This morning I thought it would break the 52 week high, but sold at 87.56 after it showed signs of sliding. Back again at 87.11. Let's see.
Edited to add: Out 87.54. Have to attend to the world. Good luck everyone:-)
March 31st, 2011 10:32 AM
Black Swan Oh, in FAS at 29.98 on a limit buy. Just realized the order was executed. Have a sell order at 30.28.
March 31st, 2011 11:10 AM
ISA_Coder well, 52 week high has been broken.
I wasn't watching and TNA missed my sell limit of 87.98 by 3 cents, now it's back down to 87.30, i really need to just not watch this at all unless i can constantly monitor it, i should just come back at 350 and sell if it has not yet triggered either my stop or my limit order.

I'm sure i'm not the only one here who says they're not gonna watch an ETF and then I keep checking on it anyways.
March 31st, 2011 12:04 PM
ISA_Coder days like today i wish i were scalping instead of holding with a limit sell in place. every time it dipped today so far, it came back up, scalpers paradise
March 31st, 2011 12:45 PM
membar You guys are amazing.

FKOS sell stop hasn't hit yet. I'm out of TNA, waiting for the next calamity or until I get too impatient before I jump back in.
March 31st, 2011 01:02 PM
Black Swan True.. it's a scalpers paradise on TNA today! Made a smart phone trade on 86.98 and out on 87.44. I love these days vs the up, up and away where I am too scared to buy thinking it might be the top for the day.
March 31st, 2011 01:04 PM
Black Swan I can't stop checking the chart when I have bought ISA. Guess that makes me antsy and I stick to scalping than going for the big one.
March 31st, 2011 01:48 PM
ISA_Coder i ended up slapping on a trailing stop which triggered and i'm out at 87.76 (in at 87.12), about .75%
March 31st, 2011 01:59 PM
BullDog Cheers - We've survived QTR1. Name it and it happened - Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Nuclear radiation, Mideast protests, Dictators overthrown, Dictators on the run, US Tomahawks, ATT/TMobile acquisition, - did I miss anything?
March 31st, 2011 02:39 PM
HeidiTwit Congrats to all who played tna.

What's QTR1?
March 31st, 2011 02:53 PM
allen314159 Financials have been dragging a lot lately.. Even the pros are getting hit:

http://blogs.forbes.com/robertlenzner/2011/03/24/john-paulson-lagging-2011-market-due-to-overweight-financials/

I'm wondering when I'll give up my allegiance towards FAS. Maybe I should play with TNA more.
March 31st, 2011 03:16 PM
HeidiTwit I'm holding some fas, and not happily.
March 31st, 2011 03:28 PM
membar
Quote:
allen314159 wrote:
I'm wondering when I'll give up my allegiance towards FAS. Maybe I should play with TNA more.

FKOS has been amazing. I'd be up more if I didn't panic during the Japan crisis. You just can't get those gains with TNA.
March 31st, 2011 03:37 PM
HeidiTwit I'm holding some fas, and not happily.
March 31st, 2011 03:56 PM
allen314159
Quote:
membar wrote:

FKOS has been amazing. I'd be up more if I didn't panic during the Japan crisis. You just can't get those gains with TNA.


membar,

I missed out while I was in India. I should've just gone into cash, but I used a stop market order which went off at a bad time. Oh well. I guess +33% isn't bad over the last 6 months.

Now I've got everything automated with matlab running at home while I'm at work. Thanks for getting me in touch with the TDA API forum.

I've got a couple of improvements to FKOS which I believe have helped me out a bit that I haven't posted. There are two improvements:

1. Using an "mx + b" relationship saves you from low ATR days where you need to have a larger stop. FKOS currently uses a "kx" relationship, but the stop gets too tight with low ATR. using two parameters "m, b" keeps the stop larger during low ATR days so when things go sideways with low volatility, you can stay in FAS more days, instead of getting stopped out.

2. For positive gaps, you need to have a larger stop, for negative gaps, it's better to have a smaller stop. This adds a third parameter to the mix.

My backtests show that the combination of the above significantly improves FKOS. I'm using a reversal edition of the above which I call SuperFAS.

A 3rd improvement will be to use my overnight predictor for deciding between FAS or FAZ. most of the time, holding FAS is the best choice, but there are a few cases where FAZ is a good bet, especially when you had a positive gap the previous day combined with a sell-off from open to close.

My 4th and final improvement will be utilizing a FAS-KOS vs. FAZ-KOS prediction from open. This will allow for the possibility of holding FAZ overnight as well as throughout the day (and not touching FAS) which sometimes seems to be the best play in hindsight.

Well there you have it, my grand scheme with FAS,FAZ!
March 31st, 2011 07:34 PM
membar
Quote:
allen314159 wrote:
I missed out while I was in India. I should've just gone into cash, but I used a stop market order which went off at a bad time. Oh well. I guess +33% isn't bad over the last 6 months.

I remembered and thought of you the moment that stop blew.

Thanks for the analysis. I'll chew on it tonight. I'm hesitant to mess with success, but I'll definitely look it over. Getting stopped out this past week hasn't been all that fun.