| October 8th, 2010 09:17 AM |
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| ISA_Coder |
FAS inching up premarket.
Looks like the basejumper will just about break even today.
I've been keeping my eye on STZ for another jump up.
I'll probably be jumping into TNA/TZA today instead of FAS/FAZ for a change. |
| October 8th, 2010 09:38 AM |
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| wanlorn |
Pivots for XLF
20101008
H = 14.84
L = 14.58
C = 14.66
P = 14.69
R1 = 14.81
R2 = 14.95
R3 = 15.21
S1 = 14.55
S2 = 14.43
S3 = 14.17
Opened up right on the Pivot Line. SMA10 of XLF is currently still below the P Lineat approx 14.68. This is currently a bullish signal. However if the XLF increases dramatically in the next 10 minutes that could change. As of now it looks like the XLF is going to keep dropping down for a few minutes hopefully setting up a nice Emma entry into FAS between 9:45 and 10:00.
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| October 8th, 2010 09:56 AM |
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| wanlorn |
Emmast and Emmaeod entered FAS 22.52 stop at 22.18 @ 9:54 |
| October 8th, 2010 10:02 AM |
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| ISA_Coder |
in TNA at 49.38, stop at 48.40 |
| October 8th, 2010 10:12 AM |
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| wanlorn |
EmmaST1 and EmmaEOD1 still haven't entered FAS. A true cross of the MACD has not occured as FAS dropped off right after hitting 22.52. |
| October 8th, 2010 10:29 AM |
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| ISA_Coder |
Quote:
ISA_Coder wrote:
in TNA at 49.38, stop at 48.40
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that was a nice 2% loss....and now it will rebound and come all the way back up |
| October 8th, 2010 10:32 AM |
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| 888nyc888nyc |
just picked up .20 from tna |
| October 8th, 2010 10:46 AM |
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| wanlorn |
EmmaST1 and EmmaEOD1 just bought FAS 22.41 stop at 22.07 @ 10:45.
EmmaST and EmmaEOD still in FAS from earlier. |
| October 8th, 2010 11:41 AM |
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| BullDog |
In Fas 22.31, Out 22.58, collected 27 cents |
| October 8th, 2010 11:59 AM |
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| 888nyc888nyc |
argh, meeting ruined all the fun for me |
| October 8th, 2010 01:21 PM |
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| andy0323 |
The market is always here to play... just play carefully. :)
Made 2% TZA overnight. I was expecting a bigger movement in my favor with the news, but looks like the market is "hopeful" for more stimulus. |
| October 8th, 2010 02:45 PM |
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| wanlorn |
Financials are dead weight for the market right now. SPX made it to 1166 and yet RIFIN can't ever break 785. If financials were keeping up I think SPX would be over 1170 now.
I don't know what it is going to take to get the Financial sector to finally move but when it does it will be a very sharp 3-4% day when the broader market only moves 1%. |
| October 8th, 2010 02:46 PM |
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| 888nyc888nyc |
go go TNA go
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| October 8th, 2010 02:55 PM |
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| andy0323 |
Quote:
wanlorn wrote:
Financials are dead weight for the market right now. SPX made it to 1166 and yet RIFIN can't ever break 785. If financials were keeping up I think SPX would be over 1170 now.
I don't know what it is going to take to get the Financial sector to finally move but when it does it will be a very sharp 3-4% day when the broader market only moves 1%.
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Earnings! |
| October 8th, 2010 03:27 PM |
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| BullDog |
Are the Market open Monday (Columbus Day)? |
| October 8th, 2010 03:43 PM |
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| 888nyc888nyc |
not going to be greedy... out at 51.43 |
| October 8th, 2010 03:44 PM |
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| wanlorn |
Quote:
BullDog wrote:
Are the Market open Monday (Columbus Day)?
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Yes next market holiday is Thanksgiving day November 25, 2010 and Friday the 26th is a half day. Close is at 13:00. |
| October 8th, 2010 03:48 PM |
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| wanlorn |
SPX hit 1167.73 but RIFIN stopped at 785.67..
Come on short covering.. push us up to 1170! |
| October 8th, 2010 03:51 PM |
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| 888nyc888nyc |
Quote:
wanlorn wrote:
SPX hit 1167.73 but RIFIN stopped at 785.67..
Come on short covering.. push us up to 1170!
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financials lagging because of the uncertainty + the foreclosure ordeals. Once that is lifted, + earnings are ok, I think they'll catch up with the rest. |
| October 8th, 2010 04:01 PM |
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| wanlorn |
EmmaEOD and EmmaST sold FAS at 22.53 at 15:58 for net gain of next to nothing after commissions.
EmmaEOD1 and EmmaST1 sold FAS at 22.54 at 15:59 for a net gain of 0.58% for the day.
Membar did you ever try backtesting the idea of end of day for FAS = 15:46? Wold of been an extra 0.5% for the day. |
| October 8th, 2010 04:18 PM |
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| wanlorn |
BTW I ran a backtest of EmmaEOD which has exactly matched EmmaEOD1's real time trading all week. From 1/1/08 to yesterday if you started trading with $25K and reinvested all of your earnings. IE didn't withdraw anything so would of had to pay taxes out of another pool of money. You would be playing with $400,162 today.
Of cvourse it is backtest and 1 week of identical trades does not equal 2 years of identical trades but even if you only made half that.
Of course you would of had to of paid quarterly taxes on approximately $125K for last year and another $250k this year and thats a huge chunk of cash.
If you didn't happen to have 6-7K extra every quarter for year 1 to pay uncle sam well your earnings would have dropped to approximately $89k for year 1 making a $5k quarterly tax payment. Your account value at the begging of Year 2 would have been around $115K making 6K quarterly payments for 2010 you would now be playing with an account value of $279k.
Don't you just love compounding!
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| October 8th, 2010 08:47 PM |
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| membar |
Quote:
wanlorn wrote:
EmmaEOD and EmmaST sold FAS at 22.53 at 15:58 for net gain of next to nothing after commissions.
EmmaEOD1 and EmmaST1 sold FAS at 22.54 at 15:59 for a net gain of 0.58% for the day.
Membar did you ever try backtesting the idea of end of day for FAS = 15:46? Wold of been an extra 0.5% for the day.
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Sorry I wasn't able to post today. My 1.4% stop stopped me out at 22.21, the exact low of the day: 22.53 / 22.21, 22.39 / 22.66 (because I exited 15:44).
I haven't tried backtesting the idea because I've just noticed it the past month or so. I even scalped FAZ from 14:45 to 14:58 for $0.06 today because of this.
My variant of Emma RUT got shredded today. Twice stopped out in TZA. |
| October 8th, 2010 08:47 PM |
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| membar |
Quote:
wanlorn wrote:
BTW I ran a backtest of EmmaEOD which has exactly matched EmmaEOD1's real time trading all week. From 1/1/08 to yesterday if you started trading with $25K and reinvested all of your earnings. IE didn't withdraw anything so would of had to pay taxes out of another pool of money. You would be playing with $400,162 today.
Of cvourse it is backtest and 1 week of identical trades does not equal 2 years of identical trades but even if you only made half that.
Of course you would of had to of paid quarterly taxes on approximately $125K for last year and another $250k this year and thats a huge chunk of cash.
If you didn't happen to have 6-7K extra every quarter for year 1 to pay uncle sam well your earnings would have dropped to approximately $89k for year 1 making a $5k quarterly tax payment. Your account value at the begging of Year 2 would have been around $115K making 6K quarterly payments for 2010 you would now be playing with an account value of $279k.
Don't you just love compounding!
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One of my trading accounts is an IRA. |
| October 8th, 2010 08:54 PM |
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| membar |
Quote:
wanlorn wrote:
From 1/1/08 to yesterday if you started trading with $25K and reinvested all of your earnings. IE didn't withdraw anything so would of had to pay taxes out of another pool of money. You would be playing with $400,162 today.
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2008 and 2009 were special years. Not sure how soon we'll get a repeat of that. Now all of the stuff I'm playing is being stopped out right and left. I'm mostly interested in knowing the right way to proceed in periods of uncertainty like this without losing my hard-earned profits. |
| October 8th, 2010 09:36 PM |
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| wanlorn |
Quote:
membar wrote:
Sorry I wasn't able to post today. My 1.4% stop stopped me out at 22.21, the exact low of the day: 22.53 / 22.21, 22.39 / 22.66 (because I exited 15:44).
I haven't tried backtesting the idea because I've just noticed it the past month or so. I even scalped FAZ from 14:45 to 14:58 for $0.06 today because of this.
My variant of Emma RUT got shredded today. Twice stopped out in TZA.
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I'm very much leaning to only using On bar close = true. While on bar close = false nets a few cents more sometimes it also causes some trades that would not have occured in the backtest.
Also backtest shows that 1.5% stop is the optimal stop from 0.5% to 4.0% range tried in 0.1% increments.
Yes the past couple years were quite unusual trading years. Who knows where we are going from here other than hopefully up. I've got my fingers crossed that Emma will keep performing well for next few years.
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| October 8th, 2010 10:26 PM |
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| membar |
Quote:
wanlorn wrote:
I'm very much leaning to only using On bar close = true. While on bar close = false nets a few cents more sometimes it also causes some trades that would not have occurred in the backtest.
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I'm not worried about small variations as long as the actual trades are profitable themselves over time. Time will tell.
Quote:
Also backtest shows that 1.5% stop is the optimal stop from 0.5% to 4.0% range tried in 0.1% increments.
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I found 1.4% for what I was trying to do, but maybe I should try again with recent data. One thing I said before was that this should probably be a function of ATR because I can't imagine a fixed percentage stop being valid for an extended period of time.
Quote:
Yes the past couple years were quite unusual trading years. Who knows where we are going from here other than hopefully up. I've got my fingers crossed that Emma will keep performing well for next few years.
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If by "up", you mean the market, then I'm afraid I don't see that happening. If you mean "up" with Emma's returns, then that might happen. Thanks again for sharing this with me. |