| September 14th, 2010 09:26 AM |
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| membar |
Hi All,
I'm getting a sense that the market will jump on or shortly after open and never look back.
I'm trading Emma!R1 today with a small amount of money. I'm rolling over the $8 loss from Friday. |
| September 14th, 2010 09:37 AM |
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| membar |
Quote:
membar wrote:
I'm getting a sense that the market will jump on or shortly after open and never look back.
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OK. Scratch that. Here are my Emma pivots. Are you getting the same thing, wanlorn?
H = 785.65
L = 769.42
C = 785.05
P = 780.04
R1 = 790.66
R2 = 796.27
R3 = 812.50
S1 = 774.43
S2 = 763.81
S3 = 747.58
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| September 14th, 2010 09:40 AM |
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| wanlorn |
I got the exact same numbers. Currently RIFIN is between P and S1 indicating bullish trades. Unless it keeps dropping to S1 and S2 range. |
| September 14th, 2010 09:53 AM |
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| wanlorn |
S&P bouncing back up off of 50% P to S1. Keep an eye on the S&P 1115.5 level. If S&P dips under 1115 expect it to keep going to 1113.
Original Emma says Bull day. Emma!R1 says expect to jump in bull one minute and bear the next as we bounce above P or below S1. |
| September 14th, 2010 10:07 AM |
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| Black Swan |
Looks like bull run is losing it's steam.
Anyone into bears?
Just bought TZA at 29.83. |
| September 14th, 2010 10:08 AM |
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| membar |
Quote:
wanlorn wrote:
Original Emma says Bull day. Emma!R1 says expect to jump in bull one minute and bear the next as we bounce above P or below S1.
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VXX has actually dropped since open even though FAS is down. |
| September 14th, 2010 10:08 AM |
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| wanlorn |
I'm not going to both running original Emma anymore. I've seen enough to know that Emma!R1 is the better strategy. I'll be running EmmaULT and Emma!R1 today to see how EmmaULT performs during real time trading.
Emma!R1 entered FAS 22.24 @ 10:05 with stop @ 21.91
Something odd happened though with the script.. that I think is related to calculateonbarclose = false. It thinks we had multiple stops there. So I will need to look at the entry code for real time. Never had it do that before.
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| September 14th, 2010 10:09 AM |
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| membar |
My Emma just bought FAS @ 22.21 (stop @ 21.90)
My other strategy is in FAZ so again, I have mixed feelings about this. |
| September 14th, 2010 10:16 AM |
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| wanlorn |
My early entry was due to forgetting to select RTH instead of ETH. With RTH I got the same entry as you. |
| September 14th, 2010 10:17 AM |
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| membar |
Quote:
wanlorn wrote:
My early entry was due to forgetting to select RTH instead of ETH. With RTH I got the same entry as you.
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Cool. It's pretty amazing that IB and TDA can be in sync to that extent. |
| September 14th, 2010 10:32 AM |
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| wanlorn |
I'm using MB for data feed now. TDA doesn't work well for !R1 due to not being able to keep RIFIN up to date unless I manually reload RIFIN every few minutes. But yes the data feed of IB and MB are probably very similar.
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| September 14th, 2010 10:55 AM |
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| HeidiTwit |
Just looking at where fas/faz opened today, I can see emma would predict an up day.
I'm watching buying @10:30 tuesday & selling thursday at open. In with a vbuy - tna 42.06. |
| September 14th, 2010 10:59 AM |
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| wanlorn |
I noticed one small problem with emmadual script while it was running in real time. It can calculate multiple entries while waiting for the market order to fill. This results in miscalculation of stops. I've modified the code to correct this behavior. Note you will only see this if you have calculateonbarclose false and multiplestop true.
To fix it I added a timeofentry variable that gets set when an entry is signaled the first time. Then added an if check of current time > timeofentry then stop++; Since its 1 minute granular due to using the 1min data this will prevent this from happening.
On subsequent crosses while waiting for fill to occur (remember tick level calculation)
I added my current copy of NT7 code that I updated. The following lines were added in the update:
58; 576-579; 586; 593; 650; 657. |
| September 14th, 2010 11:08 AM |
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| wanlorn |
I like how Fas is trending up slowly.. RIFIN is above the Pivot and using it as support. (approx 22.30 on FAS) SPX keeps bouncing off of the 50% P to R1. at 1123 but we are starting to break through now.
Maybe FAS 22.60 by 11:30 euro close. |
| September 14th, 2010 11:17 AM |
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| membar |
Quote:
membar wrote:
My other strategy is in FAZ so again, I have mixed feelings about this.
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Ouch. Maybe I should just completely switch to Emma. |
| September 14th, 2010 11:20 AM |
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| membar |
Quote:
wanlorn wrote:
I noticed one small problem with emmadual script while it was running in real time. It can calculate multiple entries while waiting for the market order to fill.
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I wanted to talk to you about this, but then I thought that this problem might not manifest itself because you set EntriesPerDirection = 1.
The way I do this is to set a boolean flag right before you place your order which stops you from placing any more orders. Then you override OnExecution as per a previous post to get the fill event. |
| September 14th, 2010 11:35 AM |
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| wanlorn |
Quote:
membar wrote:
I wanted to talk to you about this, but then I thought that this problem might not manifest itself because you set EntriesPerDirection = 1.
The correct I do this is to set a boolean flag right before you place your order which stops you from placing any more orders. Then you override OnExecution as per a previous post to get the fill event.
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Yea the entriesperdirection prevents multiple entries into the position but didn't stop the false counts to stops. Your fix may be better than mine. As the entry signal could occur at 10:01:59 and not fill till 10:02:01 and a false count could again occur. Changing the if statement to time > timeofentry + 100 would stop this from occuring though.
SPX bounced off R1 = 1126.. Fas managed to break 22.60 as I hoped. I think we will see another challenge of 1126 and then breakthrough but not by enough to carry us past 50% (1128) R1 (1126) to R2 (1130). I would expect FAS to max out around 22.80 to 22.85 if this occurs.
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| September 14th, 2010 11:38 AM |
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| membar |
Quote:
wanlorn wrote:
Changing the if statement to time > timeofentry + 100 would stop this from occuring though.
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Yes, but then what happens in the unlikely event that you buy and get stopped out within the same minute bar? Doing this via OnExecution() avoids these kinds of issues. |
| September 14th, 2010 11:40 AM |
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| wanlorn |
EmmaULT said exit at 22.48 @ 11:27 btw..
Emma!R1 still in the trade. |
| September 14th, 2010 11:48 AM |
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| wanlorn |
Quote:
membar wrote:
Yes, but then what happens in the unlikely event that you buy and get stopped out within the same minute bar? Doing this via OnExecution() avoids these kinds of issues.
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Yea but the way I wrote the stop count it would still catch it exception would be if buy stop and new buy signal all in 1 minute. I do agree your way is the better implementation. It would probably be best to rewrite the stops calculation. I took a shortcut instead of digging into the OnExecution code to write this. Using the logic if we see a entry signal the previous trade either got an exit signal (decrementing the stops) or then by default we were stopped out.
SPX challenging 1126 trying to get the muster to cross. |
| September 14th, 2010 11:57 AM |
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| wanlorn |
Emma!R1 exited at 22.55 @ 11:52 (1% min gain setting)
EmmaULT entered FAZ 12.94 @ 11:52 stop @ 12:71
Emm!R1 entered FAZ 12.94 @ 11:54 stop @ 12.75 |
| September 14th, 2010 12:05 PM |
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| wanlorn |
Financials are holding SPX down.. I think we are about to see market trend down to SPX 1120 |
| September 14th, 2010 12:09 PM |
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| wanlorn |
Emma using the bull day logic would have bought FAS again 22.68 around 12:05.. |
| September 14th, 2010 12:21 PM |
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| wanlorn |
SPX challenged 1128 and failed at 1127.. its bumping along 1126 now.. I think the down trend has started.. confirmation of downtrend will be dipping below 1125 and confirmation we are going to 1120 will be dipping below 1123. |
| September 14th, 2010 12:26 PM |
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| wanlorn |
Well 1126 held again.. Looks like another try for 1128.. I just don't see SPX breaking through. |
| September 14th, 2010 12:26 PM |
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| membar |
Quote:
wanlorn wrote:
SPX challenged 1128 and failed at 1127.. its bumping along 1126 now.. I think the down trend has started.. confirmation of downtrend will be dipping below 1125 and confirmation we are going to 1120 will be dipping below 1123.
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I could go for one of those downtrends right now. |
| September 14th, 2010 12:29 PM |
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| wanlorn |
Quote:
membar wrote:
I could go for one of those downtrends right now.
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Yea if SPX breaks 1128 watch out it could get extremely ugly for FAZ. It would probably be enough to change sentiment in financials and RIFIN to head up to 788 790 level. |
| September 14th, 2010 12:30 PM |
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| shazee |
I am waiting for 1130. If we fail to break 1130, then downtrend happens if we break 1130, this market can shoot up much much higher. I don't want no bull/bear traps.
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/the-game-changer-at-spx-1130/ |
| September 14th, 2010 12:33 PM |
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| membar |
Quote:
wanlorn wrote:
Yea if SPX breaks 1128 watch out it could get extremely ugly for FAZ. It would probably be enough to change sentiment in financials and RIFIN to head up to 788 790 level.
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My FAZ stop is very close by, but I'd still prefer not to stop out.
I want to buy the $100K version of Ninja Trader where you can move the arrow indicator which indicates the price of FAS with your mouse in order to change FAS to that price at the NYSE. |
| September 14th, 2010 12:39 PM |
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| wanlorn |
Quote:
shazee wrote:
I am waiting for 1130. If we fail to break 1130, then downtrend happens if we break 1130, this market can shoot up much much higher. I don't want no bull/bear traps.
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/the-game-changer-at-spx-1130/
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1130 is the R1 line for today. Breaking 1128 will tell me that we can challenge 1130 today. Breaking 1130 today will change market sentiment and push financials higher which has been lagging all day. Financials catching up to the market will then push us well over 1130 at least in my opinion..
I just don't think the market has enough in it today to break 1128 with financials lagging. This should be enough to drag us back down for rest of the day. My opinion is that the Market just doesn't have enough in it to hold these levels till EOD. |